Blackjack Insurance Odds. The blackjack insurance probability of the dealer making blackjack in a regular game is 9:4. The exact odds of winning an insurance bet for the player are not the same and vary depending on the number of decks and the number of ten-point cards already dealt in the game.
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Blackjack insurance odds. If the dealer has a blackjack hand you will receive 2-1 on your insurance bet. It will essentially recover the bet that you lose to the dealer’s blackjack, or you will lose it if they have anything else. It’s also possible to lose both bets, making you worse off than if you just played out the hand against the ace.
The odds against the dealing making a blackjack are roughly 9 to 4. On average you will lose more than half of the insurance bets you make and since the bet pays out 2 to 1, it's a losing proposition.
Professional players almost never use blackjack insurance. The odds of a dealer turning up a 10 in order to score a perfect two-card blackjack are almost slim to none. Using insurance in blackjack is one of the strategies that many people question each and every time the dealer turns up an Ace.
If the dealer has blackjack, you win the insurance bet, usually at 2 to 1 odds - meaning you break even on the hand. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, you lose the insurance bet.
Let's take the product of the win and the probability. 2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%.
Although typical blackjack casino games have a house edge of less than 1%, the house edge for the insurance side bet varies from 5.8% in a single-deck game to over 7.5% in an 8 deck game. As you can probably guess, the true probability of the next card being a 10 is lower than the probability implied by the payout odds.
If the dealer has a ten or picture card in the hole, which gives him a blackjack, the insurance wager is paid at 2 to 1 odds. Therefore, in the above example, the $5 insurance bet would win $10. Therefore, in the above example, the $5 insurance bet would win $10.